VenEconomy: Winds from the North From the Editors of VenEconomy Latin American Herald Tribune July 17, 2015
Evan Ellis, professor of the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College (SSI) in Carlisle, Pennsylvania, recently published a report entitled "The Approaching Implosion of Venezuela and Strategic Implications for the United States." It should be made clear that Ellis is giving a personal view on the matter and not on behalf of the U.S Army or the government.
Just like many other analysts, Ellis considers that Venezuela is on the brink of collapse, which would have serious repercussions for Venezuela’s neighboring countries and the region. He claims that "the current regime in Venezuela is locked in an economic and political death spiral from which multiple reinforcing dynamics make it difficult to escape calamity."
This statement has not escaped the thoughts and fears of thousands of Venezuelans. VenEconomy has raised this as a possible scenario, both in its monthly analysis as well as its Economic, Political and Social Perspectives study for over a decade now.
But, the approaches of Ellis bring along two additional points that must be analyzed.
The first of them relates to the impact that a collapse of Venezuela would have on other countries of the region, including the U.S. and Cuba. Among other things, he suggests that the violence in Venezuela will force its neighbors (Colombia, Guyana and Brazil), and nearby Caribbean states, to undertake the expensive and unprofitable task of increasing border controls to handle the effects of refugees, terrorist violence and crime. At the same time, he points out that both the U.S. and Europe will have to dedicate more efforts to tackle drug-trafficking from Venezuela and to support the security forces of the Caribbean and Central America when crime becomes uncontrollable in the region.
The second approach of Ellis is based on the possible strategic repercussions for the U.S. Ellis considers that it is not in the U.S. strategic interest to intervene in Venezuela. This is bad news for those Venezuelans with high expectations that the northern giant would do their job.
Ellis claims that U.S. intervention in Venezuela would cause a greater damage to the U.S. relations with the region and its global strategic position, rather than the benefits it would provide for stability and the Rule of Law in the region. What’s more, he argues that a hypothetical intervention from the U.S. would likely drive other nations of the hemisphere into a deeper embrace of extra-regional powers such as China and Russia, and would move the region one step further from democratic self-governance.
Among other negative consequences for the U.S., Ellis points out it may further need to help Colombia with:
1) Resources and technology to assist the country to prepare for waves of refugees, as millions of increasingly marginalized Colombians currently living in Venezuela are forced to return.
2) Resources to help Colombia control its eastern border, if spreading lawlessness in Venezuela creates a de facto sanctuary in which rebels fighting the Government can continue to operate, putting into jeopardy the ongoing Colombian peace process.
At the same time, the U.S. may also need to strengthen security cooperation with the newly elected democratic government of Guyana, which may heat things up at the border with that country as Venezuela would use this for propaganda purposes.
Among the suggestions of Ellis to U.S. authorities are:
1) Keep building criminal cases against Venezuelan officials.
2) Seek to work with Chinese and other foreign interests in the country to assure them that cooperation of Chinese institutions such as International Commerce Bank of China with international law enforcement will not necessarily undermine the Chinese position in the country, but rather, bolster its legitimacy.
3) Try to involve the OAS, even if some governments will prefer multilateral solutions that are led by UNASUR and thus exclude the U.S.
4) The U.S. should be prepared to work with Brazil on issues such as the nation’s own shared border with Venezuela, and potentially find ways to collaborate with Brazilian forces in other aspects of the Venezuelan crisis.
5) Make it clear that Brazilian attempts, in conjunction with ALBA governments, to exclude the U.S. from a role in addressing the Venezuela crisis would be counterproductive.
Ellis considers that for the U.S. the crisis of Venezuela is also an opportunity to strengthen its role in maintaining the democracy, stability, and development of the hemisphere.
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