Dialogue is the Last Chance for Venezuela, Washington Commentators Say (VIDEO)
 By Michael Rowan
El Universal - Latin American Herald Tribune
April 9, 2014

A Mess

“Venezuela is a mess,” the financial analyst and publisher Russ Dallen reported.

“Venezuela is not just a petro-state but a narco-state and a military-state,” the author and professor Javier Corrales said.

“But there’s a glimmer of hope with dialogue,” former U.S. Ambassador to Venezuela John Maisto insisted.

All three were at a Washington meeting of the Americas Society, talking about “Venezuela one year after Maduro” because “Venezuela is too important to ignore,” as the moderator Eric Farnsworth opened the session.

A Rapist

Dallen recalled how the protests evolved: Students protested impunity of a campus rapist; when students were crushed by anonymous goons and uniformed soldiers, half the country joined the protests against scarcity of goods, hyperinflation, senseless currency values, corruption, blackouts, crime and the basic unfairness of elections and governance.

And most significantly, the people of the barrios may not have joined the protests but they didn’t support Maduro either. Maduro is not Chavez.

With 40 dead, dozens wounded or imprisoned, events have destroyed Maduro’s reputation and driven him to the negotiation table. But many in the opposition don’t trust Maduro to dialogue in good faith.

Frankenstein

Professor Corrales described four crises – the lack of adjustment to economic reality, the collapse of populist price and exchange controls, the Cuban influence over policy and oil money, and the worst of these, sectarianism, where the government only serves its loyalists.

Maduro’s militarization of sectarianism is what created the protests and the excessive use of force to put them down. Speaking of the unpredictable military, he said, “It’s a Frankenstein monster.”

And only Venezuelans can deal with it.

Take the Chance

As Maisto sees it, Maduro is insecure and has no credibility in Venezuela or the hemisphere. The only thing that keeps him alive is $100 oil. But as Dallen noted, most of Venezuela’s oil is not sold for $100 but given away domestically and to Cuba and Petrocaribe allies.

Maduro is a lot weaker in public negotiations than the opposition might imagine, Maisto believes. The Vatican and participating nations will support a democratic not dictatorial solution, so the opposition could emerge with a fair CNE and maybe more.

For example, “Getting the government to conform to the constitution is not a trivial breakthrough,” Corrales said – to both nods and laughter.

Video starts at 11:52